Posted by: shoji | October 26, 2007

Climate is too complex for accurate predictions

This headline from the New Scientist is damning, but not at all surprising. Anyone think predicting the weather is easy?

But I think the headline and quote from Roger Pielke, see below, do a disservice to science and basic research. At this time, modeling climate may seem “impossible” (a descriptor that often proves its user wrong), but current technologies definitely seemed “impossible” or even unimaginable years ago.

Since when do policy makers use science to inform their decisions? [sarcasm… sort of]

Climate is too complex for accurate predictions – earth – 25 October 2007 – New Scientist Environment
“This finding reinforces not only that climate policies will necessarily be made in the face of deep, irreducible uncertainties,” says Roger Pielke, a climate policy expert at the University of Colorado at Boulder, US. “But also the uncomfortable reality – for climate modellers – that finite research dollars invested in ever more sophisticated climate models offer very little marginal benefit to decision makers.”


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